Bitcoin (BTC) keeps riding a solid wave of bullish momentum, trading consistently above the $104,000 level on Monday as investors respond to calming geopolitical tensions between the United States and China. The world’s top cryptocurrency is also being supported by increasing hope that future U.S. inflation data may help facilitate a dovish monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. With technicals continuing to be bullish and institutional buying remaining resolute, analysts now expect a probable spike above the $109,000 mark in the near term.
Geopolitical Tailwinds Driving Momentum
Bitcoin’s recent surge coincides with renewed optimism on world markets following news that the U.S. and China have made significant progress toward stabilizing their long-strained trade relationship. After decades of tit-for-tat tariffs and diplomatic stalemates, the two economic behemoths are said to be drafting a new cooperation framework aimed at lowering trade barriers and stimulating technological exchange.
This thaw in U.S.-China relations has injected confidence into risk assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies. As a decentralized store of value that thrives in times of economic and political uncertainty, Bitcoin has often acted as a barometer for macro risk sentiment. With tensions easing, traders are pivoting to crypto not only as a hedge but also as a growth opportunity.
“Bitcoin is acting more as a macro asset now,” said Emily Carter, Horizon Global Investments senior crypto analyst. “Greater global stability tends to see liquidity returning to growth markets, and Bitcoin is becoming more part of that equation.”
All Eyes on Inflation and the Fed
Along with trade news, market players are keenly observing future inflation figures from the U.S. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report later this week is anticipated to indicate cooling inflation, which may reinforce bets that the Federal Reserve will continue its current interest rate stance—or reduce rates in the coming months.
Lower rates of interest usually favor risk-on assets such as crypto through an enhanced liquidity in the system. Investors, especially institutions, tend to invest in digital currencies such as Bitcoin when it is cheap to borrow money and the fiat money is under stress.
“Trends in inflation are critical at this point,” argued Marcus DuPont, portfolio strategist with CryptoQuant Capital. “If the Fed signals even a moderate dovish tilt, we might see Bitcoin break not only $109,000, but arguably test new all-time highs this quarter.”
Technical Strength Suggests Room to Run
Technically, Bitcoin is still well within bullish ground. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are pointing upwards, and relative strength index (RSI) levels are in good shape without evidence of overbought levels.
Recent price action has also witnessed Bitcoin successfully flip crucial resistance levels into support. The $100,000 psychological level, which was once a zone of intense selling pressure, has now been convincingly broken and retested—a bullish indicator.
Volume in trading has also been strong, indicating that this rally is not speculatively led but by sustained investor demand. Derivatives markets have indicated a steep rise in long positions, and on-chain data reveals strong wallet accumulation by whales.
Institutional Interest Adds Fuel
JPMorgan’s recent disclosure that it holds $1.7 billion in Bitcoin ETF assets has further validated the cryptocurrency’s position in traditional finance. As more institutional players enter the market, Bitcoin’s liquidity, credibility, and long-term growth potential continue to strengthen.
“Bitcoin is no longer just a retail-driven asset,” said DuPont. “We are now seeing pension funds, asset managers, and even sovereign entities allocate to crypto.”
Bitcoin’s rise to over $104,000 represents another significant chapter in its 2025 story. Underpinned by enhancing international relations, a supportive macroeconomic environment, and increasing institutional takeup, the lead cryptocurrency looks well set for more gains. Inevitable short-term corrections in any bull run are one thing, but with current momentum, a push towards $109,000—and beyond—is very much in play.
