GSR Markets, a prominent crypto market maker, has projected that the introduction of spot Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States could potentially catapult the price of SOL by a significant margin, potentially up to nine times its current value.
In a report released on June 27, GSR Markets outlined Solana (SOL) as a pivotal player among “crypto’s big three,” speculating on the imminent approval of a spot cryptocurrency ETF for Solana in the U.S. The report coincided with VanEck’s surprise filing to launch a spot Solana ETF on the same day.
GSR Markets, which holds a bullish position on SOL, based its forecast on the assumption that Solana ETFs would attract approximately 14% of the investment flows witnessed by spot Bitcoin ETFs since their inception in January. This scenario, dubbed the “blue sky scenario,” could potentially elevate SOL’s current price of $144 to over $1,320, propelling Solana’s market capitalization to around $614 billion.
The market maker also presented more conservative scenarios. In the “bear” and “baseline” scenarios, GSR anticipates price increases of 1.4x and 3.4x, respectively, contingent on Solana ETFs capturing smaller portions of Bitcoin’s flows.
GSR Markets highlighted that these estimates could further swell if Solana ETFs include staking rewards, although staking features were not incorporated in approved spot Ether ETFs due to regulatory constraints.
Despite GSR’s optimistic outlook, industry analysts such as Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas suggest that significant regulatory shifts, potentially including changes in U.S. political leadership and Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) governance, would be necessary for serious consideration and approval of a spot Solana ETF. The SEC’s classification of SOL as a security in recent actions against major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase adds complexity to the approval process compared to the relatively smoother paths of Bitcoin and Ether ETFs.
The report also noted recent developments in the Solana ecosystem, including endorsements from Franklin Templeton, a $1.5 trillion asset manager, although Franklin Templeton has not committed to launching a Solana ETF.
Currently, over $1 billion worth of Solana exchange-traded products are available globally, underscoring growing investor interest in the cryptocurrency.
